Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie for second-round runoff
A Datafolha survey released Saturday shows President Lula with 46% support versus Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 43% in a potential runoff, with Lula's lead narrowing significantly since December.
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A Datafolha poll released Saturday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 46% of voting intentions in a simulated second-round presidential runoff, against 43% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of Rio de Janeiro. The margin of error is two percentage points, indicating a technical tie between the two candidates.
The survey marks the first Datafolha measurement since Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, confirmed his presidential candidacy with his father's backing. Compared with a December poll, Lula's advantage has contracted sharply. In that earlier survey, Lula held 51% to Flávio's 36% in a runoff scenario—a 15-point gap that has now narrowed to 3 points.
In first-round simulations, Lula leads across five tested scenarios, though his margins have declined. In a matchup with Flávio and Eduardo Leite of the PSD, Lula registers 39% against Flávio's 34%, with Leite at 3%. When paired with Flávio and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, Lula scores 39%, Flávio 33%, and Caiado 4%. In a scenario including Lula, Flávio, and Ratinho Junior of the PSD, Lula reaches 38%, Flávio 32%, and Ratinho 7%. With Lula, Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicanos, and Ratinho, Lula obtains 39%, Freitas 21%, and Ratinho 11%.
A hypothetical first-round scenario substituting Finance Minister Fernando Haddad for Lula shows Flávio ahead, with 33% to Haddad's 21%. In a separate runoff simulation between Haddad and Flávio, the two are in technical tie, with Flávio at 43% and Haddad at 41%, with 14% choosing blank or null votes and 1% unable or unwilling to respond.
Among evangelical voters, Flávio Bolsonaro demonstrates particular strength. In stimulated contests where presidential candidates are presented in advance, Flávio reaches approximately 50% support among evangelicals, compared to Lula's maximum of 23% in that demographic. Among Catholics, Lula leads with 45%, while Flávio reaches a maximum of 30%.
Rejection levels show Lula and Flávio in near parity. Lula registers 46% rejection while Flávio stands at 45%, a technical tie. Finance Minister Haddad shows 27% rejection. Among other tested figures, Governor Ratinho Junior of Paraná registers 19% rejection, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas 18%, Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema 17%, Rio Grande do Sul Governor Eduardo Leite 15%, Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado 14%, Missão Renan Santos 14%, and former Defense Minister Aldo Rebelo 12%.
The survey was conducted between Tuesday, March 3, and Thursday, March 5, interviewing 2,004 voters across 137 municipalities. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under code BR-03715/2026.
On Saturday, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro filed a police report with the Senate Police after identifying a social media post suggesting he suffer an attack similar to the stabbing his father endured during the 2018 campaign. The post, made on platform X by a user identified as @MarcosB51733320, stated: "Who ordered it I don't know. But whoever wants to pay me for Flávio to suffer the same..." The police report identified the suspected author as Marcos da Cunha Magalhães, 40, a Brasília resident. The case was registered as a threat with political connotation under article 147 of the Penal Code.