Iran escalates attacks on Gulf shipping as oil prices spike above $100
Iran attacked commercial vessels and Dubai airport Wednesday as the conflict entered its 13th day, prompting the IEA to declare the disruption the largest in oil market history.
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Iran dramatically escalated its campaign against civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, striking commercial ships and targeting Dubai's international airport as U.S. and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes.
The attacks extended into Iraqi waters Thursday, with two oil tankers struck by projectiles near Iraq's southern ports, according to Iraqi officials. Iran claimed responsibility for striking one of the vessels, a U.S.-owned tanker. The strikes marked the first reported attacks in Iraqi waters since the conflict began 13 days ago.
Oil prices climbed back above $100 a barrel Thursday following the escalation. The International Energy Agency said the ongoing war is creating "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." The Paris-based group of 32 nations revised down its 2026 oil supply estimate to 1.1 million barrels per day from 2.4 million barrels, and noted that crude production was currently down by at least 8.0 million barrels per day.
Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran 13 days ago, the Strait of Hormuz has become a critical chokepoint. The narrow waterway, which carries roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies, has seen multiple attacks on commercial ships and oil refineries. Oil tankers and refineries from major Gulf producers are being targeted, forcing production shutdowns as shipments cannot leave ports.
Senior Iranian officials warned of a long "war of attrition" and predicted a global economic crisis stemming from Tehran's disruption of the region's energy supplies. Oil prices on Thursday topped $100 a barrel before dipping to $98.
The energy crisis is affecting regions worldwide, with Asia particularly exposed. Last year, nearly 90 percent of all oil and gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz was bound for Asia. Ordinary people rely on these supplies to heat homes, fuel vehicles, and generate electricity, while businesses depend on energy to power the region's vast manufacturing base.
The International Energy Agency announced that member countries would release a record amount of oil from emergency reserves, including 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The U.S. military reported attacking 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz this week. It remains unclear whether any mines have been deployed in the strait. American officials are aware that naval mines, often no larger than a beach ball, can cripple warships or tankers, based on evidence from the 1980s when Iranian mines damaged commercial ships in the Persian Gulf.
Violence continued across the Middle East, with Israel bombarding Beirut's southern suburbs and southern Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drones and rockets at northern Israel on Wednesday night.
Multiple Israeli security sources told the Guardian that Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, and that expectations airstrikes could prompt a popular uprising were driven by "wishful thinking" rather than hard intelligence.