Tropical Storm Melissa forms in Caribbean, threatens Haiti and Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Melissa, the 13th named storm in the Atlantic this year, formed in the Caribbean, bringing heavy rain, flash flooding, and landslide risks to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with its long-term path uncertain.
October 21, 2025 - 09:54 PM ET • 3 min read
Tropical Storm Melissa formed in the Caribbean on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, bringing forecasts of heavy rainfall, significant flash flooding, and potential landslides to Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The storm, the 13th named system in the Atlantic this year, is expected to move slowly towards Haiti and Jamaica, though forecasters note considerable uncertainty in its future path and intensity.
The Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported Melissa approximately 300 to 305 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Tuesday evening. The storm maintained maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and was moving west at 14 to 15 mph. Its tropical storm-force winds extended up to 140 miles from its center.
A gradual turn towards the north and northwest is anticipated in the coming days, with a decrease in forward speed as weakening steering currents may cause the storm to linger over the Caribbean.
Haiti and the Dominican Republic are expected to receive between 5 and 10 inches of rain through at least Friday, with further heavy rainfall possible beyond that period, officials said. This significant precipitation poses a high risk of flash flooding and dangerous landslides across Hispaniola. Other Caribbean islands, including Aruba, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica, could see 1 to 3 inches of rain through Friday, with flash and urban flooding possible in Puerto Rico.
In anticipation of Melissa's approach, a hurricane watch has been issued for the southern coast and Tiburon peninsula of Haiti, extending from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for Jamaica. Residents in these areas, along with Cuba, were advised to monitor the storm's progress and complete preparations to protect life and property by Thursday.
Forecasters expressed "significant uncertainty" regarding Melissa's long-term track and intensity. Computer models, often visualized as "spaghetti plots," show widely scattered potential paths for the storm. While many models suggest Melissa could remain in the Caribbean Sea through the weekend, others indicate possibilities of it stalling and drifting west towards Central America or turning northeast into the open Atlantic. This lack of consensus among models makes predicting when and how much the storm might turn particularly challenging.
Experts are also monitoring Melissa's potential to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, fueled by the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, which has seen fewer storms this season. Hurricane hunter aircraft were scheduled to collect more data to improve forecast accuracy.
Melissa is currently not expected to have a major impact on the mainland United States or its territories, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Current model projections do not show the storm approaching South Florida or the rest of the U.S. mainland.